Markets Overview
- ASX SPI 200 futures up 0.3% to 8,746.00
- S&P 500 up 0.6% to 6,902.95
- Dow Average up 1.4% to 49,065.01
- Aussie up 0.3% to 0.6716 per US$
- US 10-year yield fell 2.9bps to 4.1612%
- Australia 3-year bond yield fell 6.1 bps to 4.17%
- Australia 10-year bond yield fell 4 bps to 4.80%
- Gold spot up 2.5% to $4,441.36
- Brent futures up 1.6% to $61.73/bbl
Economic Events
- 09:00: (AU) Dec. S&P Global Australia PMI Compo, prior 51.1
- 09:00: (AU) Dec. S&P Global Australia PMI Servi, prior 51.0
US stocks finished higher on Monday, as investors snapped up tech shares even while the capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro fanned worries over geopolitical risk. Oil prices rose, along with gold.
The Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 0.8%, with tech-focused megacaps such as Amazon.com Inc. and Tesla Inc. among the gainers. The benchmark S&P 500 Index followed suit, rising 0.6% as shares of energy companies and financials rallied, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record. Bitcoin was up more than 3%.
Brent crude rose as traders weighed the fallout from the developments in Caracas. Chevron Corp. shares traded higher, alongside other US oil majors, after President Donald Trump floated plans for a US-led revival of Venezuela’s industry.
On a day that combined demand for havens as well as riskier assets, gold offered safety as questions swirled about what the weekend’s events hold for the global order: Prices for the precious metal were up almost 3% to above $4,400 an ounce, while silver prices saw a more than 4% increase. Equity traders, however, showed little concern that tensions will curtail a three-year bull run.
“The bullish case for equities remains intact,” according to Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer at Westwood. “Broader market leadership should look past Venezuela entirely unless cascading geopolitical events emerge.”
The buoyant mood in big tech stocks was prevalent in Asia, where a regional gauge hit an all-time high. In US trading, gainers included Qualcomm Inc., which said it’s extending a push into the market for processors that are the heart of personal computers.
It “feels like an inertia market, with investors still grumbling about a possible AI bubble, but too afraid to walk away from the promises of a bigger, better AI future,” said Michael Bailey at FBB Capital Partners.
In bond markets, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to 4.16%, as a report released Monday morning showed US manufacturing activity shrank in December by the most since 2024.
Venezuela’s deeply discounted bonds traded higher after the capture of Maduro set the stage for the potential regime change that investors have been betting on.
Defaulted notes from the sovereign and state-run oil company PDVSA have already more than doubled to between 23 and 33 cents on the dollar in the past few months as Trump ramped up pressure. While still far out, the prospect of a potential debt restructuring could fuel further gains.
Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, asked the US to work with her country, striking a more conciliatory tone toward the Trump administration after her initial outrage at the capture of Maduro.
Key US economic data will likely shape the week ahead. In addition to the December jobs report, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue figures on Wednesday for November job openings, quits and layoffs. The Fed lowered its target band for short-term lending rates at its past three meetings in response to weakening labor-market conditions, and officials are expected to reduce it further this year.
Later in the week, the US government will report on housing starts, while the University of Michigan issues its preliminary January consumer sentiment index.
“Even as geopolitics are once again top of mind for investors, we’re reminded that this week offers an array of key fundamental updates,” wrote Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets. Those are “still the most relevant wildcard for the US economy and monetary policy.”
