Markets Overview

  • ASX SPI 200 futures down 0.1% to 8,629.00
  • S&P 500 little changed at 6,823.78
  • Dow Average little changed at 48,429.07
  • Aussie down 0.2% to 0.6642 per US$
  • US 10-year yield little changed at 4.1782%
  • Australia 3-year bond yield fell 3.3 bps to 4.08%
  • Australia 10-year bond yield fell 0.1 bps to 4.73%
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $4,314.09
  • Brent futures down 1.0% to $60.48/bbl

Economic Events

  • 09:00: (AU) Dec. S&P Global Australia PMI Mfg, prior 51.6
  • 09:00: (AU) Dec. S&P Global Australia PMI Compo, prior 52.6
  • 09:00: (AU) Dec. S&P Global Australia PMI Servi, prior 52.8
  • 09:15: (AU) RBA’s Jones-Speech
  • 10:30: (AU) Dec. Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM, prior 12.8%
  • 10:30: (AU) Dec. Westpac Consumer Conf Index, prior 103.8

RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks at a summit in Sydney. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman has pushed back against investor bets on an interest-rate hike next year, saying she expects the Official Cash Rate will remain unchanged for some time.

The last full trading week of 2025 started with stocks, bonds and the dollar wavering as Wall Street geared up for key economic data that will help shape the Federal Reserve rate outlook.

On the eve of the US jobs report, the S&P 500 fluctuated. A renewed tech slide saw Broadcom Inc. heading toward its worst three-day plunge since 2020. Oracle Corp. extended its multi-session selloff to about 17%. A rout in cryptocurrencies also kept a lid on riskier assets.

Treasury two-year yields edged mildly lower amid bets the Fed will cut rates twice next year to support the job market even as inflation shows signs of stickiness. The dollar was little changed.

“Investors appear indecisive about making bold moves ahead of a heavy plate of high-profile economic data,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.

Following the Fed’s latest decision to slash rates, the November jobs report — due on Tuesday — is expected to show a sluggish labor market. The reading will also include an estimate of October payrolls — figures that were delayed by the federal shutdown.

The fallout from the longest-ever government closure extended to another key indicator: the consumer price index scheduled for Thursday.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued the policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive. Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said policy is well positioned for next year following last week’s reduction. His Boston counterpart Susan Collins said the rate decision was a “close call” as she’s concerned about elevated inflation.

With the Fed still appearing to be more focused on labor-market weakness than inflation, we’re likely facing a “bad news is good” scenario for the jobs report, according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

“As long as the numbers don’t suggest employment is falling off a cliff, the markets may embrace soft data because it could lead to a more-dovish Fed,” he said.

The S&P 500 hovered near 6,820. Megacaps were mixed, with Apple Inc. falling while Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. climbed. A gauge of small caps underperformed.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.18%. Bitcoin sank 2.5%. The yen gained as investors ramped up bets the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates this week.