Markets Overview

  • ASX SPI 200 futures little changed at 8,887.00
  • S&P 500 up 0.3% to 6,840.20
  • Dow Average little changed at 47,562.87
  • Aussie down 0.2% to 0.6545 per US$
  • US 10-year yield fell 2.0bps to 4.0775%
  • Australia 3-year bond yield fell 1.3 bps to 3.60%
  • Australia 10-year bond yield fell 1 bp to 4.30%
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $4,002.92
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $64.77/bbl

Economic Events

  • 09:00: (AU) Oct. S&P Global Australia PMI Mfg, prior 49.7
  • 11:00: (AU) Oct. Melbourne Institute Inflation, prior 0.4%
  • 11:00: (AU) Oct. Melbourne Institute Inflation, prior 3.0%
  • 11:30: (AU) Sept. Building Approvals MoM, est. 5.0%, prior -6.0%
  • 11:30: (AU) Oct. ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements , prior -3.3%
  • 11:30: (AU) Sept. Household Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
  • 11:30: (AU) Sept. Private Sector Houses MoM, prior -2.6%
  • 11:30: (AU) Sept. Household Spending YoY, est. 5.5%, prior 5.0%

Economists expect the RBA to keep interest rates at 3.6% at its Nov. 3-4 meeting, after consumer prices surged beyond expectations. Westpac is scheduled to report FY earnings.

Asian stocks were set for a cautious open Monday as investors awaited fresh catalysts after global equities extended their winning streak to a seventh consecutive month.

Equity-index futures pointed to gains in Hong Kong while those in Australia suggested shares were set for a soft start. Australian bond futures opened lower. Markets in Japan and cash trading of Treasuries were closed on Monday due to a public holiday. US stock gauges closed at a record Friday with earnings optimism outweighing worries about a rally that’s heavily concentrated on tech giants.

Stocks have rallied to record levels, even after a warning from the Federal Reserve that a rate cut in December isn’t a foregone conclusion and earnings from megacap tech companies were mixed. Trade relations between the US and China were also a big theme and during the weekend, Beijing signaled plans to suspend new export controls on rare earth metals and end investigations into US firms in the semiconductor supply chain.

“We come off what was one of the biggest weeks of the year,” wrote Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne. “The markets head into the new week in an interesting position: sentiment is bullish,” especially with the Fed risk-event out of the way.

The agreement announced earlier by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping marks a tentative easing in trade tensions, but further developments remain unclear. While Trump has backed away from 100% tariff threats and discussed lifting fentanyl-related levies, the durability of the deal and its broader impact on relations, is far from assured.

“The Trump-Xi meeting yielded a handful of agreements on some contentious issues, but stopped short of a broad deal, with no loosening of US controls over high-end chips,” Barclays Bank analysts led by Christian Keller wrote in a report.

In commodities, China is scrapping a long-standing gold tax incentive in a potential setback for consumers in one of the world’s top bullion markets, while oil prices may move after OPEC+ said it will pause output increases during the first quarter — after making another modest hike next month — as the group balances its push for market share against signs of an emerging surplus.

From geopolitical flare-ups to trade tensions, the threat of a US government shutdown and lofty valuations, traders had plenty to digest in October. In the end, faith in Corporate America and growing conviction that Federal Reserve rate cuts will sustain profit growth, carried the day.

Since its April slump, the S&P 500 has roared back nearly 40%, marking its longest monthly winning streak since 2021. The Nasdaq 100’s performance has been even more striking: a seven-month rally, its best run in eight years, powered by tech’s strong balance sheets and unrelenting AI optimism.

“There is increased skepticism about the participation in the rally, though many see this as the next in the line of ‘glass half empty’ arguments from bears that have seen most of their previous arguments fade,” Mark Hackett at Nationwide said. “Most indicators continue to support a strong market through year-end.”

If history is any guide, November kicks off the best six months of the year for US equities. But the question is whether those year-end gains have already been priced into the market after one of the S&P 500’s biggest stretches since the 1950s.

Traders will also be watching a packed week for global central banks. Policymakers from Australia to Sweden and Brazil are expected to keep rates steady, while their counterparts in Mexico may deliver a cut. In the US, the ongoing federal shutdown continues to cloud the outlook by disrupting key economic data releases.

In oil, OPEC+ will pause output increases during the first quarter — after making another modest hike next month — as the group balances its push for market share against signs of an emerging surplus.